| |
 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Predicted Time 5K
24 Feb 01 - Winchester, VA |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| These links lead to pages outside of the SVR Web site, and are here just for fun. The club bears no responsibility for the content of the linked pages. |
|
|
 |
|
|
| • | 58% of runners made overly conservative guesses, while 40% of runners thought they would run faster than they did. |
| • | Half of the runners came within 36 seconds of guessing their time. Here is a chart showing how close everyone's predictions were (in 15 second increments): |
| • | In general, faster runners made better guesses. Those whose guesses came within 1:30 or less had an average finish time of 23:28, while those whose guesses were over 1:30 had an average time of 27:27. Here is a scatter chart with each person's actual finish time represented by a dot:
|
| • | Compared to last year's race, this year's finish times were faster and the predictions were better:
| 2001 AVERAGES | |
| avg. prediction | 24:45 |
| avg. finish time | 24:26 |
difference
| 0:19 |
| 2000 AVERAGES | |
| avg. prediction | 25:56 |
| avg. finish time | 25:17 |
| difference | 0:39 |
This year's improvement is also borne out by averaging up how far away each runner's guess was from his or her actual time, regardless of whether or not the guess was high or low. The average difference this year was 1:05, versus a figure of 1:25 for last year. |
| • | No doubt influenced by our base 10 number system, 71% of the predicted times ended in either a "0" or a "5". But a mere 23% of the actual times ended with either of those numbers! It's all random chance, I guess.
|
|
|
|
 |
|
|
| When looking for a race to run, what are the two most important factors in your choice (besides "location")? |
| 1. | course | 33 |
| 2. | entry fee | 18 |
| 3. | SVR involvement | 17 |
| 4. | awards | 15 |
| 5. | amenities | 7 |
| 6. | no. of participants | 4 |
| 7. | location/closeness | 3 |
| 8. | distance (10Ks) | 2 |
| | girls/chicks | 2 |
| x | no answer | 29 |
The question was multiple-choice; write-in responses appear in blue. Oddly enough, "location" got three votes despite being specifically excluded in the question! |
|
|
|
|
| | 
Start of the race
|
Clocks, cakes, running books, t-shirts, McDonald's coupons, and more were up for grabs, and all that the 65 participants had to do was come as close as possible to predicting their eventual finish times! Yes, once again it was time (pardon the wordplay) for the Predicted Time 5K, held for the second year in a row at Frederick County Middle School in Winchester, VA. Unfortunately, a snowstorm a couple of days before the event necessitated a course change, as our short cross country section ended up rather icy. With the first mile rerouted to the hilly neighborhood west of the school, runners were treated to a tough, steep incline on Caroline Street, and race director Karsten Brown
The Caroline St. hill
| |
(that's me) delighted in blasting Carl Orff's bombastic operatic piece "O Fortuna" from a boom box at the top of the hill. But despite a couple of miniscule icy patches, the course was dry, and temperatures hovered in the mid-30s under cloudy skies during the race.
| | 
Jon Whitehead lashes out at the photographer
|
Participants recorded their predicted times when they registered for the event, and signs were posted in the school lobby reminding everyone that watches were not permitted to be worn during the race. It wouldn't exactly be sporting if people could use watches to pace themselves, would it? Just to be certain, we had everyone roll up their sleeves and hold up their arms just prior to the start. If anyone was wearing a watch, we didn't spot 'em.
Sweeney
Triantafillou
| |
When everyone had finished slogging up the hills and looping around the grounds of the Winchester Medical Center, our advanced computerized results revealed that Dustin Sweeney became the first person in recent memory to predict his time exactly! The 18-year-old had been surprised to hear his predicted time of 17:20 called out as he crossed the finish line in second place overall. Dustin was followed to the prize table by Terry Leckie, whose guess of 21:00 was low by just one second. I reckon Mark Vann looked into his crystal bald, err, ball, to come up with the third best prediction, a mere two seconds low. Crespatown, MD's Kevin Walizer had the fourth best guess (four seconds off), and Michael Triantafillou tied with Alan Efremoff for fifth (five seconds off). Though these runners ended up getting first dibs on the prizes, nearly everyone got a chance to pick out something in the end.
| | 
Julie Kerby was 0:09 off
|
All in all, our Predicted Time 5Kers ran faster than last year and did a great job with their predictions. This year's average finish time dropped by 51 seconds, and the average separation between the predicted times and the actual times was down to 1:05, compared with 1:25 in 2000. And while 58% of last year's participants came within a minute or less of guessing their finish time, 66% of this year's runners managed it. Much like last year, though, the better predictors tended to be faster runners. See the sidebar in the right column for more prediction statistics and a couple of pretty charts & graphs, and check the predictions page to see exactly how prescient each runner was!
Stickley
| |
Of course, in order to produce all of these stats, everyone had to run the 5K! Among the men, Mark Stickley came away with his fourth victory of the Winter Series. The Stickman warmed up before the race with 2000 Predicted Time 5K winner Bobby Lockhart (who then inexplicably went home), then he cruised to an easy win in 16:10. The aforementioned Dustin Sweeney was a minute and ten seconds back for second place, his highest finish so far in this year's series. Ryan Bayne took some time out of his busy schedule at York College in Pennsylvania to come down and finish | |
Mr. Bayne
|
our race in third place with a time of 17:51. Chris Northrup solidified his lead in the Winter Series points with an 18:12 fourth place finish, and Neal Riemenschneider surprised himself by easily shaking off Mark Vann at the halfway point and crossing the line in 18:24 for fifth. ("Maybe I should race without a watch more often!," says Neal.)
Riley at mile 1
| |
Ruth Riemenschneider returned from second place finishes at the last two Winter Series races to take the top spot among women here, finishing in 20:53. Ruth faced tough competition from Caitlin Riley of Springfield, VA, who led for the first half of the race. Caitlin hung on for second in 21:01, and the great Sandy Adams was just twelve seconds back for third. And as usual, Christina Moore (21:50) and Heather Kremer (22:08) put in solid performances, finishing fourth and fifth, respectively. (Yours truly got in trouble with Heather after I | |
C. Moore
|
mentioned her Winter Series 3-to-1 won/loss record versus husband Myron in one of the photo captions from the Lincoln race. Myron became determined to even up the score, and he brought it up to 3-2 with a seven-second win over his lovely wife at this race! Oops, I noted the won/loss record again, didn't I? My apologies.)
We filled up the extra space on the finish cards with another post-race poll, needless to say, but this time we asked a legitimate question: "When looking for a race to run, what are the two most important factors in your choice (besides 'location')?" Of the six multiple-choice responses,
Beth Keeley checked 'SVR involvement' twice!
| |
"course" was the number one answer by far-- which is ironic in that the Predicted Time course had a couple of decent hills. Nineteen people showed their club spirit by checking "SVR involvement" as an important racing factor. I was a little surprised that "entry fees" wound up back in third with 18 votes, considering the spiraling costs of racing these days. Interestingly, three people didn't read the question closely enough and wrote in "location" (or "closeness", as if that's any different). And Jon Whitehead and Mark Belanger both tagged "girls" as a prime factor in choosing where & when to race. I thought both of these guys have wives already! Anyway, see the sidebar in the right column for an attractive post-race poll pie chart.
| | 
Captured on film
|
Adding a note of novelty to the proceedings was the fact that-- in a possible Winter Series first-- a bandit runner crossed the finish line! No, it wasn't Carolyn Wilson, who ran part of the race with Kim Weisgerber-Craig while on call at the hospital. Our bandit was a bald man in a blue sweatshirt and black pants who finished shortly after Georgiana Pardo. It is difficult to believe that somebody would not be willing to pony up a mere four bucks for a race like this! Honestly.
Kennon Y.
Peter Blank
| |
The bandit also missed out on our fine selection of prizes, many of which were donated by SVR members! The fabulous Kim Yeck baked a couple of cakes and gave out a few "gummi watches", while her husband Kennon, skilled in woodcrafts, put together two nice-looking runner-shaped wall clocks for us. Peter Blank ran 200 races in 2000 and ended up with far more t-shirts than he could ever wear, so he brought a bunch of them to give away. Mark Belanger also supplied us with a number of leftover t-shirts from the Myrtle Beach Marathon that a friend had given him. And I'd also like to thank the owners of the McDonald's restaurants in Winchester for donating a bunch of coupons for free McSalad Shakers! (You know, at McDonald's, they love to see you smile.) I myself provided a pile of old running books, a Michael Jackson "Remember the Time" CD single (get it?), and a handsome clock with an SVR logo on it. (Who ended up with the SVR clock, anyway?)
| | 
Onda vs. Bowles
|
Volunteers are never appreciated more than when you are the race director, and I was eternally thankful for everyone who assisted with the race. My sister Kyra Brown, still on the mend from a severe ankle injury last June, served as a course marshal and typed everyone's predictions into our race computer. Leesa Anderson was also out on the course, along with her friends Megan & Eric Williams,
Anna Lawrence, Jen Peachey
| |
and Leesa took some of our race pictures as well! Kim Yeck had to fight off a dog while directing runners around the parking lot a mile into the course. Loren Little came all the way from Chester Gap to volunteer (thanks, Loren!). Rick Kerby took care of a number of little things while I was rushing around fretting about the big stuff. Betty Luttrell, always willing to lend a hand (or two), worked the registration tables. And of course it just wouldn't be the Winter Series without expert timer Jerry Anderson working the finish line.
Finally, the race couldn't have been held without the kindness of Vice-Principal Maphis and Frederick County Middle School. Perhaps, with Mrs. Maphis' blessing, the Predicted Time 5K will be back for another running in 2002! While you wait, however, don't forget to browse through our humorously-captioned selection of 118 photos from the race. And for even more excellent pics, head on over to iPlayOutside's coverage of our event, which includes a race report by Neal "The Real Deal" Riemenschneider! Many thanks to iPlayOutside's Beth Herr for her skillful camera work. See y'all next year!
|
