SVR Predicted Time 5 Miler

2008-2009 SVR Winter Series Race #7

Saturday 28 February 2009
Bowling Green Country Club North, Front Royal, VA

Overall Results | Prediction Results | Results by Age Groups | Age Graded Results | All-Time Best Guessers

After six years of being held in the Stonebrook Farms community outside of Winchester, the Shenandoah Valley Runners' "Predicted Time" race headed south in 2009, relocating to the Bowling Green Country Club near Front Royal, Virginia. The SVR had held races there before, as the Bowling Green 8K had been a part of the club's eight-race Winter Series in the 1990s. Predicted Time race director Terry Leckie devised a similar loop on gently rolling rural roads, extending the distance to a wheel-measured five miles for the 28 February 2009 event.

104 runners and walkers turned up to test both their athletic skills and their prognostication abilities. Prior to the race, each participant registered a prediction as to their eventual finish time. Then they ran the race without the aid of a watch or other timing device (although not everybody remembered to remove their watches!). Inexpensive prizes were available after the race for those whose actual times came the closest to their predicted times. This year's top non-watch-wearing predictor was Charles Town's Margaret Tice, whose finish time of 44:34 was just two seconds under her predicted time. Katie Steadman, director of the eighth and final 2008-2009 Winter Series race one week after this one, was second closest, finishing three seconds faster than her 38:30 prediction. Wayne Simon (38:44) missed his guess by four seconds, Paul Grosz (55:55) was off by just five seconds, and Barry Pearson (44:38) was off by a mere six. Worst guess honors went to proud prognosticator Mary Sturm, whose 56:10 finish was almost fourteen minutes faster than her 1 hour 10 minute prediction!

As for the race itself, Purcellville's Chris Sheaffer, 24, had the men's competition locked up early on, cruising to an easy 28:42 victory despite a steady wind which made the pleasant little five mile loop feel surprisingly brutal. (Sheaffer went on to finish second overall at the B&A Trail Marathon the following day!) Results typist Karsten Brown, 33, was well back in second in 29:22, while SVR Webmaster Charles Bowles, 26, wisely slowed down after a mile and took third in 30:52. Warrenton's Duane Williamson was the top Masters man, finishing fourth in 31:07.

The women's race was dominated by two Winchester women, 18-year-old Sullivan Parkes and 37-year-old Brenda Schrank. The pair approached the finish line together, with Parkes crossing the line in 32:28 and Schrank finishing a second later. (With her finish, Schrank mathematically clinched the top spot in the women's Winter Series standings, winning the series for the second time. Parkes too cemented her series placement, earning the runner-up spot.) Berryville's Meg Roque, 32, took third place in 36:56. 40-year-old Karen Young of Beallsville, MD was the fastest Masters woman, finishing in 37:20.

The race director was grateful for both the hospitality of the Bowling Green Country Club and for the assistance of volunteers Bill Powers (in the State Farm-mobile!), Nancy Bullock, Tracey Black, Dave Black, Kyra Brown, Duane Williamson, and Karsten Brown. It's a distinct possibility that the Predicted Time race will return to Bowling Green next year... perhaps on Saturday 27 February 2010!

OVERALL RESULTS

Names of members of the Shenandoah Valley Runners appear in bold.

PREDICTION RESULTS

Upon signing up for the race, each runner was asked to predict his or her eventual finish time. Watches were not supposed to be worn during the race. Prizes were given to the runners whose actual times came the closest to their pre-race predictions. (Note: Three participants did not register a prediction before the race, and three other participants were seen wearing watches during the race; those six are not included in the prediction results below.)

AGE GROUP RESULTS

There were no age group awards at the race; age group results are shown below for reference purposes. Names of SVR members appear in bold.

Female 13 & Under

Female 17-19

Female 20-29

Female 30-39

Female 40-49

Female 50-59

Female 60-69

Female 70 & Over

Male 13 & Under

Male 14-16

Male 20-29

Male 30-39

Male 40-49

Male 50-59

Male 60-69

Male 70 & Over

AGE GRADED RESULTS

The age graded times below were computed using age grading factors from World Masters Athletics. An "age graded time" is essentially an equivalent finish time for a runner aged 20 to 29, thereby allowing comparisons of runners of all ages. "Performance level percentage" (PLP) is an indication of the quality of a performance regardless of age or gender. World Masters Athletics defines a PLP of 100% as "near world record class", 90%+ as "world class", 80%+ as "national class", 70%+ as "regional class", and 60%+ as "local class". (An online age grading calculator can be found here.)

FEMALES

MALES

ALL-TIME TOP 25 SVR PREDICTED TIME GUESSERS, 2000-2009

Minimum three races run. The SVR's Predicted Time race was a 5K from 2000-2002, a 4 miler from 2003-2008, and a 5 miler in 2009. (No prediction statistics were kept at editions of the Predicted Time race prior to 2000.)

374 different people have run the SVR's Predicted Time race since 2000. Paul Grosz, Nancy Specht, and Randy Wingfield are the only people who ran all ten of those races, while Charles Bowles, Myron Kremer, and Michael Triantafillou each ran the race nine times. (Also, eight of this year's Predicted Time participants, including Grosz, Specht, and Wingfield, were at the last race held at the Bowling Green Country Club back in 1998.)

Results by Karsten Brown. Send him an e-mail if you have any corrections or questions. (Karsten thanks Duane Williamson and Kyra Brown for their assistance!)